With the offense in full nosedive mode for the month of June (2.57 runs per game), I had set a goal to finish the month with a 13-13 record.  By taking two of three from Arizona and splitting the four game series with the Phillies, LA is well on its way to a successful June.

With five games this week against the pesky Padres and the AL West leader Texas Rangers, the boys in blue could be looking at their first losing week of the season.  I can't remember the last time the Dodgers played consistently well against the Padres even when San Diego sucked as it does this season.  So a split of the two games with the Padres is realistic.

While I think that the Rangers are just keeping first place in the AL West warm until the Angels figure out their business come August, they're much improved over last season.  We'll probably salvage one of three against the Rangers - Texas can actually score a bunch of runs and unless LA's offense snaps out of it, the Dodgers are not going to win any shootout against the Rangers.

While the bats have cooled, the pitching staff is continuing to hold it together.  The staff's ERA is a stingy 2.86 for the month of June.  While I still think the Dodgers are one impact starter and two effective reliever away from a World Series appearance, this staff is good enough to keep the Best Record in Baseball crown through the month of June.

THINGS TO BE EXCITED ABOUT:

Hiroki Kuroda looks like an Opening Day starter should by allowing just two earned runs over his first two starts since returning from the DL.

Andre Ethier is beginning to hit again raising his season average up to a respectable .271 with 9 HRs, three of those coming in the first week of June including a walk off job against the Phillies.

THINGS TO BE WORRIED ABOUT:

James Loney is on pace to have over 100 RBIs with less than 10 HRs.  That's something which hasn't been done in the NL since the 1980's and the AL since the 1990's.  The worrying part has less to do with the team's W and the L, because I still think the team will win even if Loney doesn't hit for power in 2009.  It has more to do with the implication on James' development as a player to have a drop in his power stats this early in his career.

Same thing can be said of Russell Martin's numbers.  Younger Dodger fans are spoiled by the exploit of Mike Piazza.  Those of us who can remember Steve Yeager, Joe Ferguson, and Mike Scioscia, we can live with a catcher who averages less than nine home runs a season.  But can we live with a catcher who is on pace to hit ZERO for 2009 with a batting average hovering around .250?  I was advocating trading Russell Martin in 2008 while his All Star status was still shining and I'm advocating the same thing this season.  We should trade him while there is still some shine to his catcher's mitt.

At 35-18, 17 games above .500, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball as we head into the dog days of June.  Realistically, with 26 games to play in June -- 15 against American League teams and four against defending World Series Champion, Phillies -- it would be a very good month if Los Angeles can finish June with a 13-13 record.

The Dodgers' winning percentage against the AL is around .470, not exactly stellar.  So lets say LA takes seven games out of 15 from interleague play, that would mean they need to win six games against their NL opponents -- Diamondbacks (June 1-3), Phillies (June 4-7), Padres (June 9-10), and the Rockies (June 29-30).

Realistic?  I think so, but it's really questionable if Los Angeles can pull it off because the things to be worried about far outweigh the things to be excited about.

THINGS TO BE EXCITED ABOUT:

Juan Pierre is still batting around .400 since he replaced Manny in the lineup.  If nothing else, Pierre may have played himself into a realistic trade bait if the Dodgers are willing to eat most of his contract.

Hiroki Kuroda and Eric Milton looked great as they take their position in the starting rotation.  They both look good enough to win at least 10-14 games this season.

Jamie Hoffman looks like he could be a viable fourth outfielder candidate of the near future if Pierre gets traded.

The Blue Jays are in third place and dropping like a rock.  They're 2-8 in the last 10 games.  Do they really need Roy Halladay?

Houston Astros are in last place with a .429 winning percentage.  Roy Oswalt would sure look great in Dodger Blue.

THINGS TO BE WORRIED ABOUT

Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Russell Martin and James Loney.  That's half of the starting lineup, where are the home runs?

Brent Leach, Guillermo Mota.  They are still on the roster.

As a lifelong Los Angeles Dodgers fan, I just can't tell you how excited I get when I see Kershaw and Billingsley's names on the roster.  They still have ways to go, but give it a year or two when they both arrive, they'll be the modern version of Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale, I'll guarantee you that.

Anyone who have been getting down on Kershaw's high pitch counts and erratic control and thinks he should be sent down to AAA are nuts.  Does anyone remember what Billingsley was doing in his first full season in the bigs?  147 IP, 8.6 SO/9 and 3.9BB/9.  What has Kershaw done so far?   He's on pace to throw more than 150 innings and is averaging 9.6 SO/9 with 4.8BB/9 -- a strike out to walk ratio of 2.00, almost as good ad Chad's 2.20 SO/BB ratio in his first full season.  Have a little patience will you?  The kid is going to be GOOD!

Speaking of the good old days, I'm a bit giddy as well about the prospect of our version of Garvey/Lopes/Russell/Cey combination in Martin/Loney/Either/Kemp.  It's only the next to last week of May, but you can't help getting excited about having the best record in baseball or the fact that we're doing it the old fashion way, pitching and timely hitting -- Los Angeles' home run total still sucks!

And all this without Manny.

With today's loss to the Marlins, the Dodgers are 4-5 since the Manny suspension, but they could have easily been 7-2 if not for the bullpen's continued inability to hold onto a lead.

Reasons to be excited about this Los Angeles squad:

1.  It leads the majors in nearly every offensive categories;

2.  Starting pitching, even without its opening day starter, has been lights out;

3.  Even with all the problems it is having in the rotation and the bullpen, the team's overall ERA is tops in the NL and second only to Kansas City (?) in the majors.  Los Angeles is first in the majors with a WHIP of 1.26 and among the top three the majors in K's and saves.  Wolf and Billingsley are among the top 10 of the NL in ERA;

4.  Hiroki Kuroda is on the mends.  Jason Schmidt just threw 94 pitches in a minor league game;

5.  With a 4-3 record, the Dodgers have successfully faced the aces of the NL in the Philies' Hamels, Astros' Oswalt, Diamondbacks' Haren, Padres' Peavy (twice) and the Giants' Lincecum (twice).  Impressively, the Dodgers held the lead in six of the seven games after the opposing ace had exited the game.  The bullpen, of course, managed to blow the leads in a few of those games.  But a winning record against the best that the NL has to offer is still something to get pumped up about;

6.  Orlando Hudson.  I told you he would be a game changer.  Xavier Paul - batting .500 with a home run and a double in six at bats as a pinch hitter.  Told you the kid is a player to watch for.  Juan Pierre - batting .406 with 7 stolen bases since Manny suspension.  Pierre is a good player (.300 hitter/40+ stolen base guy/200 hits per season) burdened with a great player's contract (can't hit 30 home runs or drive in 100+ per season); and

7.  Casey Blake.  Eight home runs through Saturday.

Reasons for concern:

1.  The aforementioned inability of the bullpen to consistently hold a lead.  Jonathan Broxton's recent blown save against the Phillies doesn't exactly add to my confidence in the bullpen;

2.  With 31 home runs, the Dodgers are near the bottom of the majors in that category;

3.  Rafael Furcal.  Can't play defense or hit so far this season.  Makes me wonder how Hu is doing so far this season after getting demoted;

4.  Guillermo Mota.  Makes me wonder how Gagne is doing; and

5.  Casey Blake.  Leads the team with eight home runs through Saturday.  Explains why the Dodgers are near the bottom in the majors in that category.

Manny is gone until July 3rd.  There is actually a bright side to this, and it goes by the name of Xavier Paul.

This kid deserves a good hard look by the big club, just like Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp did a couple of seasons ago.  He led the major league club during spring while hitting over .400 after hitting .316/.378/.463 for Las Vegas last season.  So far this season, Paul is hitting .344/.385/.542 with two home runs and 14 RBI in 96 at-bats at the Triple-A level.

No, he's not going to replace Manny -- but who is?  Xavier has good pop worth 15 to 20 hrs. a season; good speed and can play all three outfield position.  As good as he is, there is no room for Paul with the Dodgers because Manny and Pierre are on the roster for the foreseeable future.  But if he makes good on this audition, he could be packaged as part of a trade come July 31 and get on a team that needs young talent.

The big question now is whether the Dodgers will be able to hold out until Manny gets back.  The answer is a resounding "YES!"  This is not your 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers and this is not your 2008 NL West.  This is a much better team even without Manny and these other teams in the NL West are much worse than they were in 2008.

The Dodgers have benefited by starting the season playing mostly the NL West and mostly at home where they have a 13-0 start.  At 21-8, Los Angeles has the best record in baseball and it did so by doing what good teams are supposed to do when they are playing against bad competition:  They tear them apart, and that is what these Dodgers have been doing.

Even without Manny for 50 games, the Dodgers will win the NL West.  The Padres, Diamondbacks and Giants are AAA teams.  Andre Ethier is having a breakout season.  Furcal and Hudson look great.  Casey is playing like Casey.  Loney still has to prove that he can hit with some power and Kemp needs to reduce his strike outs, but everything is fine.  The staff will have back Kuroda in about three weeks.  Jason Schmidt just threw 100 pitches in a simulated game.  McDonald looks great in relief.  Kershaw is looking like Billingsley in his second full season with the big club and he'll get 10+ wins this season.  Wolf looks great and, of all people, so does Jeff Weaver!  So relax, the Dodgers will be fine.

I will go so far as predicting that they will still lead the NL West when Manny is reactivated and I will stick with my preseason prediction of 92+ wins.

It's great that the Dodgers are on pace to win 81 games at home this season, but the reality is no one ever win all their games at home, nor are divisions won in April.

You don't even have to go back that far in the NL West to see that teams that run away with April do not necessarily win the division.  Just ask the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks.  They were leading the West by more than five games at the end of April in 2008 and they didn't even win the Wild Card seat.  Winning 10 in a row at home to start the season is a great achievement, but just ask Joe Torre what happened to his last team, the 1983 Atlanta Braves, that pulled off that feat.  They didn't qualify for the post season.

So lets temper our enthusiasm just a little bit.

THE GOOD:

The offensive juggernaut is for real and it's because of Orlando Hudson and Rafeal Furcal.  While all that drama was going on with Manny during the offseason, I had written that even without Manny, the Dodgers can be successful if they can grab the Big-O with either Dunn or Abreu.  They did better by getting Manny and the Big-O after the re-signed Furcal.  Not only do Furcal and Orlando provide a great defensive anchor for a questionable pitching staff, they are great table setters for whoever bats behind them.  With their speed and switch-hitting capabiliy, the Dodgers have managed to score 22 runs in the first inning this season, tying them for second in the majors, only the New York Mets have more first-inning runs with 26.  Furcal and Hudson have combined to score 39 runs for the Dodgers through yesterday.

And let us not forget, the Dodgers actually beat Peavy once this season and won both games that he started in.  Two wins against their greatest nemisis so far, and it's only the first week of May.

THE BAD:

Say what you want about the starting staff, but the problem really lies in the bullpen and the Dodgers' corp of relievers outside of Jonathan Broxton.  Until Los Angeles finds a reliable 8th inning guy, and Broxton is only asked to get three outs for a save, it is only a .500 team when it starts playing the NL Central and East.  The good thing is there is still time to find that elusive arm with the next seven games at home, and things are already looking up as well for the sixth and seventh inning now that James McDonald has been demoted to the bullpen.

The reality is, McDonald, in his first full season in the majors, is not ready mentally to be a starter.  His arm has the stuff, but his head hasn't arrived just yet.  He needs to come out of the pen as he did after he was called up last season.  He can be the 2009 version of Chan Ho Park -- long relief and spot starter.  Wait until 2010, he'll be ready.

Ramon Troncoso may have emerged to be that go-to guy in the 8th after his performance this weekend against the Padres.  In eight games and 16.2 innings, Ramon has allowed only two earned runs for an ERA of 1.08 and a four-inning save job, unheard of nowadays.  He hasn't allowed a single run over the last six appearances and only three hits. How does that sound for promising?

Many people, myself included, have talked about the Dodgers needing to make an effort to acquire a No. 1 type of starter to go further this season.  But after seeing Chad Billingsley work out of that bases-loaded six-inning jam against the Padres, I have rethought my position.  I think that if everything continue to progress the way it has been, the Dodgers might do just fine standing pat.

If you look at Chad's numbers last season going into the post season, it was as good as that of Cole Hamels.  Billingsley sort of imploded once they got to the second round in 2008, but I just don't see that happening this year.  CB has improved his stuff every season since he was called up, and I am continuing to see that improvement so far this season.

A starting staff led by Billingsley, Wolf, Kuroda and Kershaw is going to do just fine if everyone stays healthy and improves as the season progress.

Another win in SF and another futile 8th inning for the Dodgers' pitchers.

We were spared the agony of seeing rookie Ronald Belisario or Hong Chih Kuo blowing another 8th inning lead when Torre summoned Jonathan Broxton to ask him for a five-out save.  That idea didn't work too well but Los Angeles' offense came to rescue again and pulled out the win.

I'm a huge fan of Andre Ethier.  The guy is a professional batter as evidenced by the 10-pitch at bat that ended with him doubling home Manny to break the tie in the top of the 9th against the Giants last night.  Personally, I would bat him third ahead of Manny.  He's got more power than Hudson so he could probably drive those "I have to avoid putting men on base before Manny" pitches better than the big O can and Ethier can work the pitch count a lot better tiring out the pitcher a bit before Manny.  I would then flip-flop Loney and Kemp behind Manny depending on who is on the mound.

Los Angeles is playing the awful NL West 28 times in their first 33 games and, so far, they have been doing exactly what they're supposed to do -- getting the best record in the NL at 14-7.  They'll come down to earth once they start playing the other teams from the NL espcially if reinforcement doesn't arrive for their pitching staff.  3/5 of their starters are basically AAA guys in Kershaw, McDonald and Stults.  As for the bullpen, outside Broxton... well you know the story.

Come on Ned, work some magic.

Opening day is 17 days away, and after a month of throwing batting practice, I'm sure the Dodgers' pitching staff is wishing that it was tomorrow instead.

The Dodgers led the major league in team ERA in 2008, but this staff bears little resemblance of that dominating group given that it has lost eight pitchers from that squad.  The top four starters for 2009 are set with Kuroda, Wolf, Billingsley and Kershaw, but this group has not exactly instilled us with much confidence or fear in the eyes of opposing batters with its 8.78 spring ERA.  As of today, it looks like Eric Milton is the leading candidate to fill the No. 5 starter slot ahead of Estes who will probalby get released before the Dodgers break camp and Vargas.  Los Angeles is going to start the season without Jason Schmidt who is still in the rehabilitation mode.  Ideally, he can return to the majors and contribute to the team's second half drive.  There is talk of Pedro Martinez being brought in to fill the No. 5 slot, but as I have said before, we don't need another over-the-hill star unless he's willing to pitch for $2 million plus lots of incentives.

If the Kuroda, Wolf, Billingsley and Kershaw perform up to expectation -- just be their average self, I would not worry about adding another free agent arm just to have another arm to start the season.  I'd rather see some of our kids fill that slot on an on-call basis.  As for the bullpen, that's a whole different story.  I think that is where Ned needs to focus his attention in the first half of the season.  Broxton will be fine as he develops into the closer that we all hope he can be.  The Dodgers need a situational lefty not name Biemel and another arm to take the 8th inning slot.  Kuo's fragile arm is not something that Los Angeles should depend on for 162 games.  James McDonald's poor spring is probably the most disappointing thing so far this season.  After his brilliance during the 2008 playoffs, I really thought he would snatch up spot in the starting rotation. But alas, maybe starting the season in the bullpen will help calm his nerves and we'll see the real James later in the season.

This Dodgers squad will win 92 games in the weak NL West, but to go deeper into the playoffs, it really comes down to Ned pulling off a trade for an established No. 1 starter like a Roy Halladay or maybe a free agent like Ben Sheets, if he is healthy by July.  Keep your eyes open Ned.  An ailing economy and teams that are looking to trim payroll equal a No. 1 pitcher available somewhere by July 31st.

Now that Manny is in the mix, the Dodgers are two major moves away from a return to the World Series in 2009.

Move number one should be focused on acquiring Roy Halladay from the Toronto "fourth place in the AL East at best" Blue Jays by the July 31^st trading deadline.  Toronto is playing for 2010, that will become apparent to everyone in Toronto by June.  With this economic downturn, they'll need to shed payroll.  That's your cue Ned. 

Much has been made in the national media about losing Lowe, Penny and Saito to free agency.  But I think that's just a lot of hot air.  Fat Penny wasn't even there for 2008, so losing him is a blessing.  Saito is a gamer, but an aging one whose contribution was falling anyway.  It's Broxton's time.  As for Lowe, he lost almost as many games (11) as he won (14) and losing his bad attitude is worth the three games that he won more than he lost in 2008.  If Randy Wolf stays healthy - a big if - he will take up the innings that Lowe had put up.  Chad Billingsley has gotten better every season since he arrived to Los Angeles, and I would guarantee that he will improve on his first full season as a starter in 2008.  The rotation of Billingsley-Kuroda-Wolfe-Kershaw-pitcher to be named is good enough to win the NL West, but to advance further than they did in 2008; the Dodgers need another ace to go with Billingsley.  Roy Halladay is the man that they need.

They could sign Pedro Martinez to join his buddy Manny Ramirez and that would certainly improve the rotation.  The problem with that is the Dodgers already have an injury-prone former No. 1 pitcher in Jason Schmidt.  Do they really need another one?

The pitching staff will be fine now that the Dodgers have added some gloves in the infield.  By bringing back Furcal and signing Hudson, Los Angeles just knocked off half-a-run from the staff's ERA.  I'm looking forward to the highlight reels that these two will be putting together from all the double-plays that they will be pulling off.

The Dodgers offense is much better than it was last season with the addition of Manny, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson and Rafeal Furcal for a full season.  Even if Manny receives the Barry Bonds treatment, there are other bats in the lineup that will make the other team pay more often than not.

Move number two is to encourage the San Diego Padres to finish the Jake Peavy trade to any other division in baseball other than the NL West.  Peavy has owned the Dodgers going 10-1 in his last 19 starts against them including 4-0 last season.  Los Angeles is good enough to win 92 games in 2009, but it would be far easier to hit that mark if Jake pitched somewhere else.

"What I do know, you better watch out when you're playing chicken."

That's Scott Boras' most recent comment regarding the Ramirez and LA Dodgers situation after he rejected the Dodgers' one-year for $25 million offer.

Frank McCourt's responded by saying that LA still wants Manny "but at some point, we have to move on."  In short, we have options, what are yours?

Ramirez's numbers after being acquired by Los Angeles were phenomenal.  Ramirez hit .396 with 17 homers, 53 RBIs, 36 runs scored, 74 hits and 35 walks in 53 regular-season games, while leading the Dodgers to the NL West title.  If those numbers don't take your breath away, he was even better in the postseason.  Ramirez hit .520 with four homers, 10 RBIs, nine runs scored and 11 walks in eight playoff games.

Those numbers were great, but they are not the only ones that you should look at when you're evaluating Manny's value to the Dodgers.  Los Angeles was one game over .500 without Manny BUT they only finished six games over .500 with Manny hitting like the second coming of Ted Williams.  The Dodgers were five games better with Manny.  Not exactly dominating when you consider the majority of those games were against the weak NL West and that many of those games were against teams that had nothing to play for.  On top of that, the Dodgers still lost to the Phillies in five games even with Manny's obscene postseason numbers.

The reality is, baseball is really a team sport and one man isn't going to make the Dodgers better in 2009 and beyond.  Unless that superstar is a starting pitcher, and Sabathia is already signed.  Ben Sheets is worth a look, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen.  Further, Los Angeles has more holes to plug for this season's roster than just left field.  The Dodgers would be better served using the $25 million to sign 29 year-old Adam Dunn to a two year deal and 31 year-old Orlando Hudson to play second base.  The rest of the money can be used to sign another starting pitcher -- a number three or four guy who can eat up innings -- and maybe a couple bullpen guys.

Dunn would take care of the Dodgers' lack of power, and if he's platooned with Pierre, it would take care of Dunn's inability to hit left handed pitching.  When Dunn is playing, the Dodgers can employ their power line up.  When Pierre is playing, the Dodgers can employ their speed lineup with Pierre batting one and Furcal batting second.  I'm not all that excited about Bobby Abreu because the guy is good for 20 to 25 homeruns and 90 RBIs.  The Dodgers already have that in Kemp and Ethier.  Dunn is more of a difference maker even if he'll strike out 190 times.  Yes, he's a defensive liability, but so is Ramirez, but there is no question about Dunn showing up to play.  You can't say the same about Manny, just ask Boston.

Orlando Hudson is a better choice than the older Orlando Cabrera, and definitely better than the still learning Blake DeWitt.  Hudson is a .290 guy that can solidify the right side of the infield.

There really isn't a rush to sign any of these guys, it's a buyer's market.  So why rush it?  It would be nice to be able to say "these are the 25 guys we're going with" in two weeks when everyone reports to camp.  But the reality is, it's a long season and you only have to be in first place in your division on the last day of the regular season.  So let the team gel and stay within five games of the lead.  There will be opportunities to add more bats and pitching by July 31^st.

As for Manny, just give Scott Boras what he deserves Frank, the middle finger, and make an offer to Dunn and Hudson.