So the buzz around the college football world is that Penn State is a lock to be one of the only teams left with an unblemished record when the regular season comes to a close. This assumption has led many to speculate rabidly about how the BCS standings will shape up-can a 1-loss team jump an undefeated Nittany Lions team? Well first of all I'd love to chime in on that...they should. Does Auburn ring a bell? But I digress...

            For those of you out there who expect JoePa's Nittany Lions to steamroll Kirk Ferentz and the Hawkeyes, as Lee Corso would say "No tan rapido amigos." After further review, I fully expect this game to, at the very least, be a very tight one. Of course, I am not much for ambiguity, so without further ado, here is my case for the Hawkeyes pulling the monumental upset over Penn State Saturday afternoon.

            First and foremost, one must point to home-field advantage, which has made all the difference in determining which Iowa Hawkeyes team has shown up throughout the season. Iowa is 1-3 on the road, and 4-1 at home with their only loss coming on a late touchdown to cap a comeback by Northwestern. It is only logical, with a sophomore QB leading this Iowa team, that they will feel much more comfortable in front of home crowds in big games. Also, Penn State has not beaten the Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium since 1999. In fact, Iowa has dominated the series over the past decade, winning 5 of the last 7 meetings between the two programs. Penn State ended a run of 5 straight by Iowa with a win in Happy Valley a year ago. That, however, was in Happy Valley...even the cows will be mooing toward Kinnick Stadium on Saturday, believe that.

            The next reason Iowa will beat Penn State on Saturday is because their philosophy and style of play match up perfectly with the Nittany Lions. You see, Penn State boasts the 11th best rushing attack in the nation. Evan Royster is having a solid year with nearly 1,000 yards to this point. On the flip side, Iowa's forte is their run defense, which ranks 12th best in the country. They held the likes of LeSean McCoy and Javon Ringer to 78 and 91 yards respectively. On top of that, Penn State has not exactly faced top tier rush defenses en route to that lofty ranking of their rushing attack-Ore St (42nd), Syr (105th), Tem (81st), Ill (74th), Pur (91st), Wis (44th), Mich (64th). The best run defense the Nittany Lions have faced was two weeks ago at Ohio State (14th), and consequently they turned in their second lowest output on the ground.

            It does not stop there; Penn State is also praised for its 8th best scoring offense, posting almost 42 points per game. Now consider the opponents' scoring defense rankings versus which those numbers have been inflated-Coastal Car (FCS), Ore St (58th), Syr (106th), Tem (32nd [in MAC]), Ill (69th), Pur (75th), Wis (61st), Mich (96th). Then once again, let's look to the Ohio State game; the Buckeyes rank 8th in the nation in scoring defense, and that defense held Penn State to just 13 points (it's lowest of the season). Saturday they will face an even tougher defense to score on-Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in scoring defense.

             Additionally, everyone is talking about Evan Royster and the Penn State rushing attack, but those same pundits somehow neglect to mention a guy who is third in the nation in rushing-Shonn Greene. Greene is the only back in the nation who has not been held under 100 yards rushing in game all year....I'll repeat that...Shonn Greene is the only back in the nation who is yet to be held under 100 yards rushing in a game. The kid averages 6.3 yards per carry, and has 11 TD's. With a sophomore at QB, playing the biggest game of his career so far, Greene is an asset which cannot be diminished.

            So you see, the formula is there-we have two stout defenses facing off, which should result in a low-scoring game. We have two strong rushing attacks, which should keep the pace slow, and the clock running. We have an underrated 4-loss team (Iowa has not lost a game by more than 5 points), playing at home where they are most comfortable. We have a crowd chomping at the bit to storm the field and carry the goal posts back to their farms. We have all the makings of an upset.

            Of course, Penn State IS the #3 team in the nation, and have their eyes on a National Championship, so an upset will be no easy task. Iowa will need to accomplish specific goals in order to pull it off. Here are my five keys to an Iowa victory-as I said for Oregon State, if they can check off every one at the end of the game, they will be victorious:

1-Stop Evan Royster-Penn State's pass offense hinges on their ability to establish the threat of the run early. Daryll Clark has been an efficient QB, but I view him in the same light as Todd Boeckman of Ohio State last year (with more athleticism obviously). He is a game manager, protects the ball, and throws mainly short passes. The Iowa defense needs to force him to have to beat them through the air. If he is forced to throw more than 30 passes, advantage Hawkeyes.

2-Win the Turnover Battle-Iowa has averaged 3 turnovers per game in losses. The good news is that Penn State's defense does not force a ton of turnovers (45th in the nation). Conversely, the Hawkeye Defense is 24th in the nation in forcing turnovers. If Iowa can reduce this to a Field Goal/Field Position battle without giving the Nittany Lions a short field, advantage Hawkeyes.

3-Dominate the time of possession-It is key that the Hawkeyes get first downs, even if their drives eventually fizzle out, they cannot have a string of 3 and outs. Ferentz and Co. need to make a conscious effort to establish Shonn Greene early, and shorten the game by keeping the clock moving. The longer that offense of Penn State stays on the sideline, the less likely they are to get in a good rhythm. If Iowa can keep their defense fresh and wear down the Penn State defense, advantage Hawkeyes.

4-Take Early Lead-The worst thing that can happen for Iowa is for the Nittany Lions to strike first and take away the electric atmosphere at Kinnick. This is a staple as far as keys to pulling off an upset go, in my book. Every top tier football team will get better as a game progresses-We saw it in Lubbock last week when Texas stormed back and nearly won. That is why it is PIVOTAL that Iowa accomplishes this. In fact, this will play a big role in determining if the aforementioned goals are accomplished. If Iowa takes an early lead (preferably two scores), Penn State will have to pass more, and Iowa will be able to run more...advantage Hawkeyes.

5-Protect/Pressure the QB-Last week in a loss, Ricky Stanzi was sacked 6 times! That is as many times as Darryl Clark has been sacked ALL YEAR. Even further, Stanzi has been sacked a total of 15 times, and 13 of those have come in losses. Clark has been allowed to remain comfortable in the pocket all year; he hasn't been hit in the mouth too many times. If Penn State IS forced to pass, Iowa will need to blitz him a few times and try to rattle his cage. If Iowa can put more hits on Clark than they allow on Stanzi, advantage Hawkeyes.

             So you see, contrary to popular belief, this game will be one of the toughest tests of the season for Penn State. If they make the same mistake that most college football pundits have made, looking ahead to the Michigan State game in the finale, they will be in for a surprise. Speaking of surprises, here's the verdict...Iowa wins 19-13, forcing a turnover on downs with less than 2 minutes left and Penn State in the Red Zone, sending the BCS into a mad scramble...mark it down.